At every turn, William Ruto has had his wings clipped, political teeth removed with pliers, the presidential wind taken off his sails
By GW Ngari
Presidents in realpolitik, are hardly selected by the voting masses. They are handpicked by Deep State-what is called “the system” and their election campaigns bankrolled by a few old money families-the dynasties-who control the purses and levers of the state. Hustlers, browbeaten by propaganda campaigns using mass media-owned by the dynasties- end up voting for a candidate, a scion, a friend, a stooge for the dynasties.
Is this what is happening as we mark this year’s Madaraka Day in an election year when the political dynasties have continued unleashing their gene of self-perpetuity?
Will Deputy President William Ruto’s goose be cooked under a slow political fire and served for dinner by President Uhuru Kenyatta and former Opposition chief Raila Odinga before the 2022 elections? Unless things change drastically as they mostly do in politics of self-interest, the machinery of the state could turn tables against the Hustler Nation in many ways.
Ruto once opened the boot of his jalopy outside Cameo Cinema and began sobbing at the sight of money
Of Kenya’s four presidents: Mzee Jomo Kenyatta, Daniel arap Moi, Mwai Kibaki and Uhuru Kenyatta, Ruto, was the rank outsider, the broom from Sugoi which could have swept the political dynasties out of the high table.
Ruto once opened the boot of his jalopy outside Cameo Cinema Nairobi and began sobbing at the sight of money made as an errand boy for Youth for Kanu ’92 political pressure group. He has never tarmacked for a job since. He made his loot through government. Until a few months ago, he appeared like the surest nail in the coffin of political dynasties.
But then came Uhuru, Raila and their 2018 ‘Handshake’ that peed on Ruto’s tent. Meant to lower political temperatures and tempers, the Handshake which cost billions if the figures from the Auditor General are any yardstick, only appear to be mudding Ruto’s political waters as he splashes to the pond as Kenya’s fifth president.
Oligarchs need to control, dominate and consolidate their grip on state power
As the late German-Italian sociologist Robert Michels explained, the ‘iron law of Oligarchy’ is the tendency of dynasties to perpetuate themselves. And it does not matter who is in power since “the internal law of oligarchies is that they will reproduce themselves not only when the same group is in power, but even when an entirely new group takes control.”
In Kenya, the ‘iron law of Oligarchy’ began after independence in 1963 when political elites, most of them Home Guards and colonial civil servants, inherited similar structures of government from the British. They occupied their residences, perpetuated the same patronage networks. They employed same old manipulation of tenders, markets and state jobs-for the economic resources oligarchs need to control, dominate and consolidate their grip on state power.
The next president and key nabobs in government will be handpicked
Then comes the tragedy of it all. In 2022, Kenyans will democratically vote for perceived new political order yet, in reality, the next president and key nabobs in government will be handpicked cogs in the wheel that moves forth the ‘iron law of Oligarchy.’
This is how it works, how presidents are installed, but citizens think they’re voting: A few old money oligarchs sit, review who best serves their interests, then bankrolls the campaign and politics being a game of perceptions brainwash voters via media, money, black and white propaganda.
The oligarchs held him by the balls, snatched and transferred power to Major-General Abdallah Badi
In the Dictator’s Handbook, Alastair Smith and Bruce Bueno de Mesquita notes that once in government, the ‘iron law of Oligarchy’ sees the new president employ the five rules of power politics to milk the most from the state.
And Uhuru Kenyatta has perfected all five: One, have as few people as possible keeping you in power. This includes advisors and military officers whom Uhuru has populated in civilian positions like the Military Governor of Nairobi.
Two, fill the first pool from a very large ocean of potential candidates. The idea is, if any in the small selected pool brings nyoko nyoko, they can be replaced. See how Jubilee Senators are being purged for backing DP Ruto? It instills the fear of God in the rest.
Reward the masses who elected you with stuff they can see. Like SGR train to Suswa. Or Sh100 million to musicians who entertain them during the pandemic
Three, tax voters as highly as you can. You need the revenue for rewarding yourself, buying off the Opposition (we still don’t know how much Raila cost) and bribing your enemies. But be nice. Like offer tax relief during a pandemic as incentive to work harder and not revolt. Use as little of this revenue on the people as possible.
After all, they only voted, but don’t keep you in power. Instead, burn the taxes on the Coalition that got you elected with state jobs and tenders. Reward the masses who elected you with stuff they can see. Like SGR train to Suswa. Or Sh100 million to musicians who entertain them during the pandemic. Whatever remains, salt it away in off-shore accounts.
When the next elections come, the ‘iron law of Oligarcy’ will repeat itself to apply the five rules of power politics.